As the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 30) in Belém, Brazil approaches, Indonesia enters a new chapter in its climate diplomacy. Following the strengthened commitment under the Enhanced NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) of 2022, the upcoming Second NDC of 2025 marks a strategic shift toward a more concrete and integrated approach. Yet the question remains—will this new phase be sufficient to meet the world’s ambition toward net-zero emissions?
From Promises to Strengthened Action
Since ratifying the Paris Agreement, Indonesia has progressed from its Intended NDC in 2015 to the Enhanced NDC in 2022. Under the Enhanced NDC, the country raised its emission reduction targets from 29% to 31.89% unconditionally, and from 41% to 43.20% with international support. This document serves as a key milestone leading to the Second NDC, in which the previous Business as Usual (BAU)-based approach is replaced with an absolute national emission target. This shift represents not only a technical adjustment but a paradigmatic transformation—from projecting what “could” be achieved to managing what “must” be achieved.
Second NDC: Aligning Ambition with Development Reality
The Second NDC (2025) integrates Indonesia’s climate agenda into its national development direction, fully embedded within the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2025–2029 and the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2025–2045. This vision is anchored in the Asta Cita concept, which emphasizes balance between economic growth, social justice, and ecological sustainability. Indonesia’s emission targets are now stated in absolute terms: the 2030 peak emissions are projected between 1.34 and 1.49 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent, a reduction of 8–17% compared to the Enhanced NDC projection. This approach is supported by the long-term Low Carbon and Climate Resilience Strategy (LTS-LCCR 2050), guiding Indonesia toward Net Zero Emissions by no later than 2060. Achieving this, however, requires stronger policy systems, financing mechanisms, and transparency frameworks than ever before.
FOLU: The Backbone of National Mitigation Efforts
The forestry and other land use (FOLU) sector remains at the heart of Indonesia’s mitigation strategy, accounting for more than half of its total emission reduction potential. Through the FOLU Net Sink 2030 strategy, the government aims to balance carbon absorption and emissions at –140 MtCO₂e. This includes restoring two million hectares of peatlands, rehabilitating 12 million hectares of degraded land, and protecting primary forests in Papua and Kalimantan. With its vast carbon reserves—particularly from mangroves that store about 22% of the world’s total—Indonesia holds a scientifically strategic role in maintaining global climate stability. Yet the key challenges lie not only in forest management but also in inter-ministerial coordination, overlapping land permits, and financing needs estimated to exceed USD 470 billion by 2035.
From Belém to the World: The Relevance of COP 30 for Indonesia
COP 30 in Brazil will be a decisive platform for nations to reaffirm the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and renew commitments toward 2035. For Indonesia, this summit offers an opportunity to showcase its real transition from the Enhanced NDC to the Second NDC—not merely increasing ambition figures but proving field-level implementation. The Just Transition principle, mainstreamed in the Second NDC, puts social dimensions at the policy core—ensuring that workers, farmers, and Indigenous Peoples are protected amid the shift toward a low-carbon economy. On the global stage, Indonesia is expected to champion Global South cooperation in climate finance, technology transfer, and the recognition of tropical forests as global public goods.
The Long Road to 2030: From Strategy to Action
Climate change is no longer a matter of diplomacy but of structural economic transformation. To ensure the success of the FOLU and NDC targets, Indonesia must strengthen its Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems by integrating the National Registry System (SRN), the SIGN-SMART database, and the carbon registry now linked to the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The participation of local communities and Indigenous Peoples remains central to oversight efforts, as emphasized in the ProKlim (Climate Village Program) and Social Forestry initiatives. Experiences from other countries show that success depends not on the size of the target, but on the consistency of implementation. Indonesia stands at a critical juncture—if the Second NDC is effectively realized, it will not only fulfill the Paris Agreement but also reaffirm Indonesia’s leadership as a sovereign, megabiodiverse nation in global climate action.
A Momentum Toward New Climate Leadership
The Second NDC signals that Indonesia is no longer merely following the global trend but actively shaping the direction of international climate governance. The transition from Enhanced to Second NDC illustrates an evolution from “political promises” to a “scientific and policy-driven framework.” At COP 30 in Brazil, the world will assess whether emerging economies like Indonesia are truly ready to drive the green transformation—and in that moment, the nation’s climate diplomacy will be tested between commitment, capacity, and the courage to change.
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